Track Record

2026 Season · Full history Every prediction is logged projected-vs-actual, every week, so the model's own confidence labels can be checked against what actually happened.
0
Weeks graded
0
Team-games logged
50%
Win/Loss hit rate
48%
QB TD O/U hit rate

Hit rate by the confidence tier the model called at prediction time — if HIGH-confidence calls aren't clearing MEDIUM and LOW by a healthy margin, the model's confidence labeling isn't earning its keep yet. Use this to decide how much to lean on HIGH-confidence legs when building a parlay.

W/L

Win / Loss picks

50%
Overall (15/30 graded)
HIGH50% (4/8)
MEDIUM50% (5/10)
LOW50% (6/12)
QB

QB TD Over/Under

48%
Overall (13/27 graded)
HIGH43% (9/21)
MEDIUM50% (2/4)
LOW100% (2/2)
YD

Player Yardage Over/Under

64%
Overall (53/83 graded)
HIGH66% (44/67)
MEDIUM56% (9/16)
LOWno graded calls yet
TD

Anytime TD Scorer

42%
Overall (15/36 graded)
HIGH43% (13/30)
MEDIUM33% (2/6)
LOWno graded calls yet
TeamRecordPFPADiffAvg proj marginAvg actual marginW/L hit rateOff rankDef rank
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-0 34 10 +24 15 pts 24 pts 100% 3 4
Chicago Bears 1-0 59 37 +22 4 pts 22 pts 100% 1 24
Kansas City Chiefs 1-0 31 10 +21 -1 pts 21 pts 100% 19 3
San Francisco 49ers 1-0 27 7 +20 -8 pts 20 pts 100% 11 9
Baltimore Ravens 1-0 41 23 +18 -4 pts 18 pts 100% 6 15
Minnesota Vikings 1-0 39 22 +17 1 pts 17 pts 100% 18 8
Las Vegas Raiders 1-0 27 13 +14 -5 pts 14 pts 100% 31 19
New York Jets 1-0 23 10 +13 -2 pts 13 pts 100% 29 29
Arizona Cardinals 1-0 26 14 +12 -11 pts 12 pts 100% 22 27
New York Giants 1-0 28 20 +8 0 pts 8 pts 100% 14 21
Pittsburgh Steelers 1-0 20 13 +7 5 pts 7 pts 100% 15 12
Cincinnati Bengals 1-0 33 27 +6 -1 pts 6 pts 100% 12 31
Buffalo Bills 1-0 36 31 +5 -3 pts 5 pts 100% 2 13
Seattle Seahawks 1-0 13 10 +3 4 pts 3 pts 100% 9 1
Detroit Lions 1-0 31 30 +1 11 pts 1 pts 100% 4 20
New Orleans Saints 0-1 30 31 -1 -11 pts -1 pts 0% 27 17
New England Patriots 0-1 10 13 -3 -4 pts -3 pts 0% 10 2
Houston Texans 0-1 31 36 -5 3 pts -5 pts 0% 13 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-1 27 33 -6 1 pts -6 pts 0% 16 23
Atlanta Falcons 0-1 13 20 -7 -5 pts -7 pts 0% 26 14
Dallas Cowboys 0-1 20 28 -8 0 pts -8 pts 0% 8 32
Los Angeles Chargers 0-1 14 26 -12 11 pts -12 pts 0% 24 10
Tennessee Titans 0-1 10 23 -13 2 pts -13 pts 0% 30 30
Miami Dolphins 0-1 13 27 -14 5 pts -14 pts 0% 28 22
Green Bay Packers 0-1 22 39 -17 -1 pts -17 pts 0% 17 16
Indianapolis Colts 0-1 23 41 -18 4 pts -18 pts 0% 7 25
Los Angeles Rams 0-1 7 27 -20 8 pts -20 pts 0% 5 11
Denver Broncos 0-1 10 31 -21 1 pts -21 pts 0% 21 7
Carolina Panthers 0-1 37 59 -22 -4 pts -22 pts 0% 25 28
Cleveland Browns 0-1 10 34 -24 -15 pts -24 pts 0% 32 18
WkQBTeamOppPass ydsPass TDRush ydsRush TDProj TDLineCallConfidenceResult
1 Aaron Rodgers Pittsburgh Steelers Atlanta Falcons 221 1 -3 0 2 1.5 LEAN HIGH HIT
1 Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cincinnati Bengals 216 0 30 1 2 1.5 OVER HIGH MISS
1 Bo Nix Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs 131 1 2 0 1 1.5 UNDER HIGH HIT
1 Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers Los Angeles Rams 205 3 29 0 2 1.5 OVER MEDIUM HIT
1 Bryce Young Carolina Panthers Chicago Bears 361 3 10 1 2 1.5 LEAN HIGH MISS
1 C.J. Stroud Houston Texans Buffalo Bills 274 2 15 0 1 1.5 UNDER HIGH MISS
1 Caleb Williams Chicago Bears Carolina Panthers 269 2 65 2 2 1.5 LEAN HIGH MISS
1 Cam Ward Tennessee Titans New York Jets 140 1 21 0 1 1.5 UNDER HIGH HIT
1 Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys New York Giants 175 2 14 0 2 1.5 OVER HIGH HIT
1 Daniel Jones Indianapolis Colts Baltimore Ravens 166 1 4 0 1 1.5 LEAN HIGH HIT
1 Deshaun Watson Cleveland Browns Jacksonville Jaguars 205 1 38 0 1 1.5 UNDER LOW HIT
1 Drake Maye New England Patriots Seattle Seahawks 178 1 47 0 1 1.5 LEAN HIGH HIT
1 Geno Smith New York Jets Tennessee Titans 215 0 7 0 2 1.5 LEAN MEDIUM HIT
1 Jacoby Brissett Arizona Cardinals Los Angeles Chargers 277 1 14 0 1 1.5 LEAN HIGH HIT
1 Jared Goff Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints 206 2 2 0 2 1.5 OVER HIGH HIT
1 Jaxson Dart New York Giants Dallas Cowboys 230 3 54 0 1 1.5 LEAN HIGH MISS
1 Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals Tampa Bay Buccaneers 254 1 20 0 2 1.5 OVER MEDIUM MISS
1 Jordan Love Green Bay Packers Minnesota Vikings 387 2 0 0 1 1.5 UNDER HIGH MISS
1 Josh Allen Buffalo Bills Houston Texans 334 2 23 2 1 1.5 UNDER HIGH MISS
1 Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers Arizona Cardinals 209 1 29 0 2 1.5 OVER HIGH MISS
1 Kirk Cousins Las Vegas Raiders Miami Dolphins 160 3 -6 0 1 1.5 UNDER MEDIUM MISS
1 Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens Indianapolis Colts 324 1 40 1 2 1.5 OVER HIGH MISS
1 Malik Willis Miami Dolphins Las Vegas Raiders 220 0 39 1 1 1.5 UNDER LOW HIT
1 Matthew Stafford Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers 155 0 -1 0 3 1.5 OVER HIGH MISS
1 Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs Denver Broncos 184 2 23 1 1 1.5 UNDER HIGH MISS
1 Trevor Lawrence Jacksonville Jaguars Cleveland Browns 245 4 3 0 2 1.5 OVER HIGH HIT
1 Tyler Shough New Orleans Saints Detroit Lions 410 3 8 0 1 1.5 UNDER HIGH MISS
WkPlayerPosTeamOppRec ydsRec TDRush ydsRush TDYardage callResultAnytime TD callResultConfidence
1 AJ Barner TE Seattle Seahawks New England Patriots 13 0 0 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Alec Pierce WR Indianapolis Colts Baltimore Ravens 61 0 0 0 REC_50 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints 67 2 0 0 REC_50 HIT LEAN HIT HIGH
1 Andrei Iosivas WR Cincinnati Bengals Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 0 0 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Ashton Jeanty RB Las Vegas Raiders Miami Dolphins 45 2 102 0 RUSH_50 HIT LEAN HIT HIGH
1 Bhayshul Tuten RB Jacksonville Jaguars Cleveland Browns 22 0 66 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Bijan Robinson RB Atlanta Falcons Pittsburgh Steelers 90 1 83 0 REC_25 HIT LEAN HIT HIGH
1 Blake Corum RB Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers 0 0 54 0 RUSH_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Breece Hall RB New York Jets Tennessee Titans 16 0 102 1 RUSH_50 HIT UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Brenton Strange TE Jacksonville Jaguars Cleveland Browns 23 1 0 0 REC_25 MISS UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Brian Robinson Jr. RB Atlanta Falcons Pittsburgh Steelers 0 0 31 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS MEDIUM
1 Brian Thomas Jr. WR Jacksonville Jaguars Cleveland Browns 40 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Bucky Irving RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cincinnati Bengals 48 0 45 1 RUSH_50 MISS UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Cade Otton TE Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cincinnati Bengals 26 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Cam Skattebo RB New York Giants Dallas Cowboys 0 0 81 1 RUSH_25 HIT LEAN HIT MEDIUM
1 CeeDee Lamb WR Dallas Cowboys New York Giants 44 1 0 0 REC_50 MISS UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Chase Brown RB Cincinnati Bengals Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 0 56 1 RUSH_50 HIT UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Chimere Dike WR Tennessee Titans New York Jets 7 0 0 0 REC_25 MISS UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Chris Olave WR New Orleans Saints Detroit Lions 182 0 0 0 REC_50 HIT LEAN MISS HIGH
1 Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB Jacksonville Jaguars Cleveland Browns 0 0 23 0 RUSH_25 MISS LEAN MISS MEDIUM
1 Christian McCaffrey RB San Francisco 49ers Los Angeles Rams 20 0 68 0 REC_25 MISS LIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Christian Watson WR Green Bay Packers Minnesota Vikings 147 2 0 0 REC_25 HIT LEAN HIT HIGH
1 Chuba Hubbard RB Carolina Panthers Chicago Bears 38 1 49 1 RUSH_25 HIT UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Colby Parkinson TE Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers 6 0 0 0 none — LEAN MISS HIGH
1 Cooper Kupp WR Seattle Seahawks New England Patriots 35 0 0 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Courtland Sutton WR Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs 11 0 0 0 REC_25 MISS UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 D'Andre Swift RB Chicago Bears Carolina Panthers 10 0 124 3 RUSH_50 HIT LEAN HIT HIGH
1 Dalton Kincaid TE Buffalo Bills Houston Texans 130 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Dalton Schultz TE Houston Texans Buffalo Bills 35 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Davante Adams WR Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers 26 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT LIKELY MISS HIGH
1 David Montgomery RB Houston Texans Buffalo Bills 19 1 60 2 RUSH_25 HIT UNLIKELY HIT MEDIUM
1 De'Von Achane RB Miami Dolphins Las Vegas Raiders 30 0 36 0 REC_25 HIT LIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Derrick Henry RB Baltimore Ravens Indianapolis Colts 19 0 144 3 RUSH_50 HIT LIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Drake London WR Atlanta Falcons Pittsburgh Steelers 29 0 6 0 REC_50 MISS LEAN MISS HIGH
1 Emeka Egbuka WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cincinnati Bengals 63 0 0 0 REC_50 HIT LEAN MISS HIGH
1 Evan Engram TE Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs 43 1 0 0 none — UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Garrett Wilson WR New York Jets Tennessee Titans 79 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT LEAN MISS MEDIUM
1 George Kittle TE San Francisco 49ers Los Angeles Rams 12 0 0 0 REC_25 MISS LEAN MISS HIGH
1 George Pickens WR Dallas Cowboys New York Giants 28 0 0 0 REC_50 MISS LEAN MISS HIGH
1 Gunnar Helm TE Tennessee Titans New York Jets 28 0 0 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Hunter Henry TE New England Patriots Seattle Seahawks 26 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Isaiah Likely TE New York Giants Dallas Cowboys 78 2 0 0 none — UNLIKELY HIT MEDIUM
1 J.K. Dobbins RB Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs 0 0 36 0 RUSH_50 MISS UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Ja'Marr Chase WR Cincinnati Bengals Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 0 0 0 REC_50 MISS LEAN MISS HIGH
1 Jahmyr Gibbs RB Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints 30 0 156 2 REC_25 HIT LIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Jake Ferguson TE Dallas Cowboys New York Giants 6 0 0 0 REC_25 MISS LEAN MISS HIGH
1 Jalen Coker WR Carolina Panthers Chicago Bears 138 2 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Jameson Williams WR Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints 45 0 0 0 REC_50 MISS UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Jauan Jennings WR Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers 0 0 0 0 REC_25 MISS LEAN MISS MEDIUM
1 Javonte Williams RB Dallas Cowboys New York Giants 31 1 41 1 RUSH_50 MISS LEAN HIT HIGH
1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Seattle Seahawks New England Patriots 122 1 0 0 REC_50 HIT LEAN HIT HIGH
1 Jayden Reed WR Green Bay Packers Minnesota Vikings 20 0 0 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS MEDIUM
1 Jaylen Warren RB Pittsburgh Steelers Atlanta Falcons 27 0 46 0 RUSH_50 MISS UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Jerry Jeudy WR Cleveland Browns Jacksonville Jaguars 26 0 0 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Jonathan Taylor RB Indianapolis Colts Baltimore Ravens 23 0 98 2 RUSH_50 HIT LIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Jordan Mason RB Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers 0 0 59 1 RUSH_25 HIT UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Justice Hill RB Baltimore Ravens Indianapolis Colts 10 0 18 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Justin Jefferson WR Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers 92 2 0 0 REC_50 HIT UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Juwan Johnson TE New Orleans Saints Detroit Lions 54 1 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Kenneth Walker III RB Kansas City Chiefs Denver Broncos 18 1 173 1 RUSH_25 HIT UNLIKELY HIT MEDIUM
1 Khalil Shakir WR Buffalo Bills Houston Texans 50 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Kyle Monangai RB Chicago Bears Carolina Panthers 24 0 100 1 RUSH_25 HIT UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Kyren Williams RB Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers 24 0 41 1 RUSH_50 MISS LEAN HIT HIGH
1 Ladd McConkey WR Los Angeles Chargers Arizona Cardinals 82 1 0 0 REC_50 HIT LEAN HIT HIGH
1 Malik Washington WR Miami Dolphins Las Vegas Raiders 53 0 0 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Mark Andrews TE Baltimore Ravens Indianapolis Colts 49 0 0 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Arizona Cardinals Los Angeles Chargers 33 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Mason Taylor TE New York Jets Tennessee Titans -2 0 0 0 REC_25 MISS UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Michael Pittman Jr. WR Pittsburgh Steelers Atlanta Falcons 58 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS MEDIUM
1 Michael Wilson WR Arizona Cardinals Los Angeles Chargers 56 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Mike Evans WR San Francisco 49ers Los Angeles Rams 49 1 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY HIT MEDIUM
1 Nico Collins WR Houston Texans Buffalo Bills 75 1 7 0 REC_50 HIT UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Omarion Hampton RB Los Angeles Chargers Arizona Cardinals 0 0 43 1 RUSH_25 HIT LEAN HIT MEDIUM
1 Pat Freiermuth TE Pittsburgh Steelers Atlanta Falcons 46 1 0 0 none — UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Puka Nacua WR Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers 74 0 0 0 REC_50 HIT LEAN MISS HIGH
1 Quinshon Judkins RB Cleveland Browns Jacksonville Jaguars 17 0 33 0 RUSH_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Rashee Rice WR Kansas City Chiefs Denver Broncos 19 1 0 0 REC_25 MISS UNLIKELY HIT MEDIUM
1 Rashid Shaheed WR Seattle Seahawks New England Patriots 4 0 0 0 REC_25 MISS UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Ray Davis RB Buffalo Bills Houston Texans 0 0 3 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Rhamondre Stevenson RB New England Patriots Seattle Seahawks 44 0 51 0 RUSH_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Rico Dowdle RB Pittsburgh Steelers Atlanta Falcons 6 0 15 0 RUSH_50 MISS UNLIKELY MISS MEDIUM
1 RJ Harvey RB Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs 23 0 18 0 none — LEAN MISS HIGH
1 Rome Odunze WR Chicago Bears Carolina Panthers 52 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT LEAN MISS HIGH
1 Romeo Doubs WR New England Patriots Seattle Seahawks 0 0 0 0 REC_25 MISS UNLIKELY MISS MEDIUM
1 Sam LaPorta TE Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints 48 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS MEDIUM
1 Samaje Perine RB Cincinnati Bengals Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 0 20 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 T.J. Hockenson TE Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers 36 1 0 0 none — UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Tee Higgins WR Cincinnati Bengals Tampa Bay Buccaneers 59 0 0 0 REC_50 HIT LEAN MISS HIGH
1 Tetairoa McMillan WR Carolina Panthers Chicago Bears 75 0 0 0 REC_50 HIT LEAN MISS HIGH
1 Theo Johnson TE New York Giants Dallas Cowboys 9 0 0 0 REC_25 MISS LEAN MISS HIGH
1 Tony Pollard RB Tennessee Titans New York Jets -1 0 35 0 RUSH_50 MISS UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Travis Etienne Jr. RB New Orleans Saints Detroit Lions 32 0 46 0 RUSH_50 MISS UNLIKELY MISS MEDIUM
1 Travis Kelce TE Kansas City Chiefs Denver Broncos 71 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Tre Tucker WR Las Vegas Raiders Miami Dolphins 27 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Trey McBride TE Arizona Cardinals Los Angeles Chargers 95 1 0 0 REC_50 HIT LEAN HIT HIGH
1 Troy Franklin WR Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs 0 0 5 0 REC_25 MISS UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Tucker Kraft TE Green Bay Packers Minnesota Vikings 65 0 0 0 REC_25 HIT LEAN MISS MEDIUM
1 Tyjae Spears RB Tennessee Titans New York Jets 12 0 12 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Tyler Allgeier RB Arizona Cardinals Los Angeles Chargers 9 0 61 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS MEDIUM
1 Tyler Warren TE Indianapolis Colts Baltimore Ravens 13 1 0 0 REC_25 MISS UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
1 Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB New York Giants Dallas Cowboys 0 0 14 0 RUSH_50 MISS UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Wan'Dale Robinson WR Tennessee Titans New York Jets 38 0 0 0 REC_50 MISS UNLIKELY MISS MEDIUM
1 Woody Marks RB Houston Texans Buffalo Bills -2 0 42 0 RUSH_25 HIT UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Xavier Legette WR Carolina Panthers Chicago Bears 0 0 0 0 none — UNLIKELY MISS HIGH
1 Zay Flowers WR Baltimore Ravens Indianapolis Colts 150 1 0 0 REC_50 HIT UNLIKELY HIT HIGH
Week 1, 2026
2026-09-17 01:21:23
Win/Loss: 7/15 · QB TD calls: 13/27

Auto-graded from ESPN final results. Win/Loss 7/15, QB TD calls 13/27.

Model projections tracked against actual results, every week, all season. Hit rates need a meaningful sample before they mean much — early-season numbers (a handful of graded weeks) will swing a lot game to game. This is a statistical tool, not a guarantee. Please gamble responsibly — National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-522-4700.