2026 Season · Week 1
Last refreshed 2026-08-17 03:59:03
5
High-confidence W/L picks
This week's parlay combinations
Top-margin Win/Loss picks + only HIGH-confidence QB TD legs.
| Game | Win/Loss pick | Margin | Confidence | Proj. score |
|---|
| CLE@JAX |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
14.91 pts |
HIGH |
13.09-28.01 |
| ARI@LAC |
Los Angeles Chargers |
10.86 pts |
HIGH |
17.15-28.01 |
| NO@DET |
Detroit Lions |
10.70 pts |
HIGH |
18-28.7 |
| WAS@PHI |
Philadelphia Eagles |
10.30 pts |
HIGH |
16.4-26.7 |
| SF@LAR |
Los Angeles Rams |
8.16 pts |
HIGH |
21.74-29.89 |
| ATL@PIT |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
5.40 pts |
MEDIUM |
19.53-24.94 |
| MIA@LV |
Miami Dolphins |
5.17 pts |
MEDIUM |
21.54-16.37 |
| CHI@CAR |
Chicago Bears |
3.79 pts |
MEDIUM |
24.19-20.4 |
| NE@SEA |
Seattle Seahawks |
3.72 pts |
MEDIUM |
20.52-24.23 |
| BAL@IND |
Indianapolis Colts |
3.61 pts |
MEDIUM |
25.27-28.88 |
| BUF@HOU |
Houston Texans |
2.84 pts |
LOW |
20.33-23.17 |
| NYJ@TEN |
Tennessee Titans |
1.92 pts |
LOW |
20.57-22.49 |
| GB@MIN |
Minnesota Vikings |
1.05 pts |
LOW |
18.58-19.63 |
| DEN@KC |
Denver Broncos |
0.85 pts |
LOW |
18.77-17.92 |
| TB@CIN |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
0.52 pts |
LOW |
27.11-26.59 |
| QB | Team | Game | Projected TD | Line | Call | Confidence |
|---|
| Matthew Stafford |
LAR |
SF@LAR |
2.57 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Tyler Shough |
NO |
NO@DET |
0.96 |
1.5 |
UNDER |
HIGH |
| Justin Herbert |
LAC |
ARI@LAC |
2.02 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Dak Prescott |
DAL |
DAL@NYG |
1.97 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Jared Goff |
DET |
NO@DET |
1.96 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Baker Mayfield |
TB |
TB@CIN |
1.92 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Josh Allen |
BUF |
BUF@HOU |
1.11 |
1.5 |
UNDER |
HIGH |
| Cam Ward |
TEN |
NYJ@TEN |
1.13 |
1.5 |
UNDER |
HIGH |
Full slate of Win/Loss picks + a HIGH/MEDIUM mix of QB TD legs.
| Game | Win/Loss pick | Margin | Confidence | Proj. score |
|---|
| CLE@JAX |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
14.91 pts |
HIGH |
13.09-28.01 |
| ARI@LAC |
Los Angeles Chargers |
10.86 pts |
HIGH |
17.15-28.01 |
| NO@DET |
Detroit Lions |
10.70 pts |
HIGH |
18-28.7 |
| WAS@PHI |
Philadelphia Eagles |
10.30 pts |
HIGH |
16.4-26.7 |
| SF@LAR |
Los Angeles Rams |
8.16 pts |
HIGH |
21.74-29.89 |
| ATL@PIT |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
5.40 pts |
MEDIUM |
19.53-24.94 |
| MIA@LV |
Miami Dolphins |
5.17 pts |
MEDIUM |
21.54-16.37 |
| CHI@CAR |
Chicago Bears |
3.79 pts |
MEDIUM |
24.19-20.4 |
| NE@SEA |
Seattle Seahawks |
3.72 pts |
MEDIUM |
20.52-24.23 |
| BAL@IND |
Indianapolis Colts |
3.61 pts |
MEDIUM |
25.27-28.88 |
| BUF@HOU |
Houston Texans |
2.84 pts |
LOW |
20.33-23.17 |
| NYJ@TEN |
Tennessee Titans |
1.92 pts |
LOW |
20.57-22.49 |
| GB@MIN |
Minnesota Vikings |
1.05 pts |
LOW |
18.58-19.63 |
| DEN@KC |
Denver Broncos |
0.85 pts |
LOW |
18.77-17.92 |
| TB@CIN |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
0.52 pts |
LOW |
27.11-26.59 |
| DAL@NYG |
New York Giants |
0.18 pts |
LOW |
30.09-30.27 |
| QB | Team | Game | Projected TD | Line | Call | Confidence |
|---|
| Matthew Stafford |
LAR |
SF@LAR |
2.57 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Tyler Shough |
NO |
NO@DET |
0.96 |
1.5 |
UNDER |
HIGH |
| Justin Herbert |
LAC |
ARI@LAC |
2.02 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Dak Prescott |
DAL |
DAL@NYG |
1.97 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Jared Goff |
DET |
NO@DET |
1.96 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Baker Mayfield |
TB |
TB@CIN |
1.92 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Josh Allen |
BUF |
BUF@HOU |
1.11 |
1.5 |
UNDER |
HIGH |
| Cam Ward |
TEN |
NYJ@TEN |
1.13 |
1.5 |
UNDER |
HIGH |
| Sam Darnold |
SEA |
NE@SEA |
1.20 |
1.5 |
UNDER |
HIGH |
Full slate including closer/upset-lean games + the QB TD legs with the biggest gap from the line.
| Game | Win/Loss pick | Margin | Confidence | Proj. score |
|---|
| CLE@JAX |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
14.91 pts |
HIGH |
13.09-28.01 |
| ARI@LAC |
Los Angeles Chargers |
10.86 pts |
HIGH |
17.15-28.01 |
| NO@DET |
Detroit Lions |
10.70 pts |
HIGH |
18-28.7 |
| WAS@PHI |
Philadelphia Eagles |
10.30 pts |
HIGH |
16.4-26.7 |
| SF@LAR |
Los Angeles Rams |
8.16 pts |
HIGH |
21.74-29.89 |
| ATL@PIT |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
5.40 pts |
MEDIUM |
19.53-24.94 |
| MIA@LV |
Miami Dolphins |
5.17 pts |
MEDIUM |
21.54-16.37 |
| CHI@CAR |
Chicago Bears |
3.79 pts |
MEDIUM |
24.19-20.4 |
| NE@SEA |
Seattle Seahawks |
3.72 pts |
MEDIUM |
20.52-24.23 |
| BAL@IND |
Indianapolis Colts |
3.61 pts |
MEDIUM |
25.27-28.88 |
| BUF@HOU |
Houston Texans |
2.84 pts |
LOW |
20.33-23.17 |
| NYJ@TEN |
Tennessee Titans |
1.92 pts |
LOW |
20.57-22.49 |
| GB@MIN |
Minnesota Vikings |
1.05 pts |
LOW |
18.58-19.63 |
| DEN@KC |
Denver Broncos |
0.85 pts |
LOW |
18.77-17.92 |
| TB@CIN |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
0.52 pts |
LOW |
27.11-26.59 |
| DAL@NYG |
New York Giants |
0.18 pts |
LOW |
30.09-30.27 |
| QB | Team | Game | Projected TD | Line | Call | Confidence |
|---|
| Matthew Stafford |
LAR |
SF@LAR |
2.57 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Tyler Shough |
NO |
NO@DET |
0.96 |
1.5 |
UNDER |
HIGH |
| Justin Herbert |
LAC |
ARI@LAC |
2.02 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Deshaun Watson |
CLE |
CLE@JAX |
0.99 |
1.5 |
UNDER |
LOW |
| Dak Prescott |
DAL |
DAL@NYG |
1.97 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Jared Goff |
DET |
NO@DET |
1.96 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Baker Mayfield |
TB |
TB@CIN |
1.92 |
1.5 |
OVER |
HIGH |
| Joe Burrow |
CIN |
TB@CIN |
1.92 |
1.5 |
OVER |
MEDIUM |
| Jayden Daniels |
WAS |
WAS@PHI |
1.11 |
1.5 |
UNDER |
MEDIUM |
Every game this week
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
2026-09-09 · NBC
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
(20.52–24.23)
MEDIUM
Model projected total: 44.75
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Drake Maye (NE)
1.36 proj. TD · line 1.5 LEAN HIGH
Sam Darnold (SEA)
1.20 proj. TD · line 1.5 UNDER HIGH
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
2026-09-10 · Netflix
Pick: Los Angeles Rams
(21.74–29.89)
HIGH
Model projected total: 51.63
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Brock Purdy (SF)
1.66 proj. TD · line 1.5 OVER MEDIUM
Matthew Stafford (LAR)
2.57 proj. TD · line 1.5 OVER HIGH
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
2026-09-13 · NBC
Pick: New York Giants
(30.09–30.27)
LOW
Model projected total: 60.36
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Dak Prescott (DAL)
1.97 proj. TD · line 1.5 OVER HIGH
Jaxson Dart (NYG)
1.40 proj. TD · line 1.5 LEAN HIGH
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
2026-09-13 · FOX
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
(16.40–26.70)
HIGH
Model projected total: 43.10
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Jayden Daniels (WAS)
1.11 proj. TD · line 1.5 UNDER MEDIUM
Jalen Hurts (PHI)
1.80 proj. TD · line 1.5 OVER HIGH
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
2026-09-13 · CBS
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
(18.58–19.63)
LOW
Model projected total: 38.21
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Jordan Love (GB)
1.30 proj. TD · line 1.5 UNDER HIGH
Kyler Murray (MIN)
1.28 proj. TD · line 1.5 UNDER MEDIUM
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders
2026-09-13 · FOX
Pick: Miami Dolphins
(21.54–16.37)
MEDIUM
Model projected total: 37.90
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Malik Willis (MIA)
1.27 proj. TD · line 1.5 UNDER LOW
Kirk Cousins (LV)
1.17 proj. TD · line 1.5 UNDER MEDIUM
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers
2026-09-13 · CBS
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers
(17.15–28.01)
HIGH
Model projected total: 45.16
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Jacoby Brissett (ARI)
1.43 proj. TD · line 1.5 LEAN HIGH
Justin Herbert (LAC)
2.02 proj. TD · line 1.5 OVER HIGH
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
2026-09-13 · CBS
Pick: Tennessee Titans
(20.57–22.49)
LOW
Model projected total: 43.05
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Geno Smith (NYJ)
1.60 proj. TD · line 1.5 LEAN MEDIUM
Cam Ward (TEN)
1.13 proj. TD · line 1.5 UNDER HIGH
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
2026-09-13 · FOX
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
(19.53–24.94)
MEDIUM
Model projected total: 44.47
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Tua Tagovailoa (ATL)
1.43 proj. TD · line 1.5 LEAN MEDIUM
Aaron Rodgers (PIT)
1.54 proj. TD · line 1.5 LEAN HIGH
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
2026-09-13 · CBS
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
(13.09–28.01)
HIGH
Model projected total: 41.10
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Deshaun Watson (CLE)
0.99 proj. TD · line 1.5 UNDER LOW
Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
1.66 proj. TD · line 1.5 OVER HIGH
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
2026-09-13 · CBS
Pick: Indianapolis Colts
(25.27–28.88)
MEDIUM
Model projected total: 54.15
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Lamar Jackson (BAL)
1.71 proj. TD · line 1.5 OVER HIGH
Daniel Jones (IND)
1.49 proj. TD · line 1.5 LEAN HIGH
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
2026-09-13 · CBS
Pick: Houston Texans
(20.33–23.17)
LOW
Model projected total: 43.50
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Josh Allen (BUF)
1.11 proj. TD · line 1.5 UNDER HIGH
C.J. Stroud (HOU)
1.27 proj. TD · line 1.5 UNDER HIGH
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
2026-09-13 · FOX
Pick: Detroit Lions
(18.00–28.70)
HIGH
Model projected total: 46.70
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Tyler Shough (NO)
0.96 proj. TD · line 1.5 UNDER HIGH
Jared Goff (DET)
1.96 proj. TD · line 1.5 OVER HIGH
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
2026-09-13 · FOX
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(27.11–26.59)
LOW
Model projected total: 53.69
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Baker Mayfield (TB)
1.92 proj. TD · line 1.5 OVER HIGH
Joe Burrow (CIN)
1.92 proj. TD · line 1.5 OVER MEDIUM
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
2026-09-13 · FOX
Pick: Chicago Bears
(24.19–20.40)
MEDIUM
Model projected total: 44.59
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Caleb Williams (CHI)
1.54 proj. TD · line 1.5 LEAN HIGH
Bryce Young (CAR)
1.53 proj. TD · line 1.5 LEAN HIGH
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
2026-09-14 · ESPN
Pick: Denver Broncos
(18.77–17.92)
LOW
Model projected total: 36.70
— compare against FanDuel's live total (±3.0 pt buffer before leaning either way)
Bo Nix (DEN)
1.23 proj. TD · line 1.5 UNDER HIGH
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
1.25 proj. TD · line 1.5 UNDER HIGH